
One of the myths that is being peddled during the present Covid-19 crisis is that we are all in it together. It is true that every section of UK society has been inconvenienced or worse. The virus makes no distinction between rich and poor or even, it seems, between young and old. And yet there is a sense in which the adage ‘we are all in it together’ is a falsehood. Behind this slogan is a reality too uncomfortable for most of us to face. What seems to be happening is that some are surviving far better than others. Large numbers of people without secure housing or income are losing their safety nets of survival and are being threatened with their families by something close to destitution.
In my piece about the post Covid-19 Church, I made the point that it will be the new economic realities that will cause the greatest earthquakes on the life of the church in this country. While I am no economist, I do read the financial pages of the newspaper with a reasonable amount of attention. The anticipated falls in industrial output in this and every country make for sombre reading. The effect on employment may be catastrophic. It does not take a mathematical genius to see that if you take out, even for a short space of time, a quarter of a nation’s industrial output you destroy massive amounts of personal wealth as well as the tax revenues available to a government. Much of this revenue in Britain is at present spent on the welfare state (including pensions). Even if the country gets back to normal in six months, the effect of all that lost output will take a long time to repair. At present the energy of the country is focused on the need to defeat the virus. Everything else is on hold, including the planning of how we start to recover economically. How does a country recover its economy and make it possible for ordinary citizens to continue to feed themselves and pay their bills and mortgages? Meeting that expense in peace time will put a huge dent in the nation’s future prosperity. Even if Universal Credit is quickly available for all who need it, will this cover all the necessary outgoings that most families have to meet each month? Even if landlords are generous to tenants during the crisis period we are in at the moment, who is going to be responsible for those sums in the longer term? The same question has to be asked about utility bills. Will the companies be required to write off all debts of customers who cannot pay?
There are many economic questions to be answered over the next months and years. But, however those questions are answered, it is clear that many of Teresa May’s JAMs (just about managing) will tip over into real poverty. I don’t remember the percentage of people who have absolutely no savings, but it is uncomfortably high. Living from hand to mouth has always been the way of living which has been the only available method for large numbers of people. They simply cannot afford the catastrophe of widespread unemployment that our country faces as the result of the virus.
If I can indulge in a bit of long distant memory on the topic of poverty, I could claim that when a child my family was poor by the standards of today. We were poor in the sense that we never bought ‘stuff’ and most things we had were hand-me-downs or second-hand. In society as a whole there was then in the 50s little in the way of credit to buy luxury items. Although the expression ‘overdraft’ did enter my consciousness from quite an early age, there was none of the culture of leasing a brand-new car and all the other schemes calculated to keep many families today in the stranglehold of debt.
I have sometimes wondered what would happen if even a small percentage of the leased cars on the road were to be repossessed and returned to the lenders? Even a ten per cent default will create a massive earthquake in the price of second-hand cars. The availability of these leasing schemes would decline as the companies offering these schemes find they are losing money. This would in turn seriously affect the new car market. The same thing could happen to housing. Mortgage companies can only afford to give a small holiday before they have to start to repossess homes. Once again, homes will begin to flood the market and prices will start to drop. Massive financial dislocation will again follow as some of the wealth accumulated over decades for secure retirements begins to evaporate, even for the wealthier in society. The economic activity of this country is in some areas built on the precarious and risky roundabout of debt and leverage. If the roundabout stops then everyone will realise that much of their wealth is based on fantasy.
This blog piece is a thinking out-loud exercise. We are facing a severe economic dislocation in society which may plunge many in our society in a terrible place of economic distress. Some, a few, will have taken measures to protect themselves. Some may even stand to make huge profits as they bet on the downward march of markets and currencies. The majority, the vast majority, will be poorer. Those already poor may know levels of need that will require huge levels of government intervention to enable even bare survival.
One would like to think that the leadership of our country would help people to understand what could be around the corner for everyone. I would like to think that those in government are already working out the huge rises in tax that will become necessary to stop the group we call JAMs from experiencing want and actual hunger. It will require true leadership for a Prime Minister to tell people that, to keep this country going, there will have to be real sacrifice on behalf of all to deal with the future economic shocks that we will be experiencing, as the economic realities of the virus become clearer by the month.
Where do Christians fit into all this? I would suggest that we need to hear from the leaders of churches and faiths to help us all face some of the hard truths about the future which I am trying to explore. The way forward is help all of us to see that we there has to be a new mood of community awareness. We all need to pull in the same direction to bring the whole country through the crisis. During the war, every citizen was required to lend to the government, through the tax system, extra money. This was to be returned in the form of post-war credits. Money was eventually returned, but the recipient received only a fraction of the value of what had been lent. Inflation had destroyed much of its purchasing power in the meantime. It would be difficult for any government to force wealthier citizens to hand over assets for a national crisis as they did in the 1940s. But some huge sacrificial effort is going to be needed if we are to overcome the crisis facing so many people in our society. Things like conspicuous consumption will need to be regarded as anti-social and against the common good. Sharing, recycling our ‘stuff’ and community activity will again be the new norm. Acts that show awareness of all those living around us should be encouraged, just as they have begun to appear during the lock-down. A more caring, more aware society could emerge from the present crisis and be carried into the future. This future will be one full of economic challenges of the highest order. We need dynamic and excellent leadership both from Church as well as State to make the radical shifts of attitude that I believe are going to be necessary. The old Churchillian sentiments about ‘blood, toil, tears and sweat’ may have to be wheeled out once more. Perhaps the whole country, in meeting the cost of sacrifice being asked of all, may become just a little bit more like the Kingdom that Jesus came to tell us about.